How the Nationals handle the starting rotation is worth monitoring down the stretch

PHILADELPHIA — The Nationals ended their eight-game road trip with a thud in a 7-3 loss to the Phillies, their seventh defeat during that time.

Given the exodus of top talent, the lineup the Nationals trotted out Thursday paled in comparison to the one they have played for the majority of the season. But, with 45 games remaining, the team has to find a way to remain competitive and play meaningful baseball.

“Definitely a learning moment for a lot of us,” manager Blake Butera said. “Tough stretch, no doubt. I think there were a lot of emotions throughout these last eight games with the deadline, with seeing some key parts leave, some guys that have been integral for our group and obviously have had a lasting impact both on and off the field for us. And then [James Wood] going down and doing all that while we’re on the road playing two really good teams.”

The organization’s pitching plans the rest of the way are worth monitoring after right-hander Miles Mikolas, who reached 10 years of service time, struggled immensely. He allowed seven doubles and six runs on 12 hits over five innings. Mikolas lived in the strike zone, but he left a lot of hittable pitches over the heart of the plate and the Phillies capitalized on them.

Butera said before the game that Connelly Early’s recovery from elbow inflammation had been paused because the left-hander felt forearm tightness during a live BP session. Early hasn’t appeared in a major league game since his June 30 start for the Boston Red Sox against the Nationals.

“From what I’ve been told it’s not super concerning, but he did feel a little tight, so we decided to play it on the safe side,” Butera said.

Postgame, Butera said the setback hasn’t impacted the organization’s pitching plans. An MRI hadn’t been scheduled for Early as of Thursday night.

Who takes the ball for the Nationals (56-61) the rest of the season is one of the more intriguing storylines. The team designated struggling veteran Zack Littell for assignment Wednesday when Brad Lord was reinstated from the 15-day injured list.

Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Littell was tied for the 11th-highest ERA (4.97). Signing him was supposed to provide insurance for the Nationals’ young pitching group. Throughout his career, Littell has shown the ability to eat innings, which he did for the Nationals. But the production wasn’t sufficient.

Mikolas saw his ERA rise from 5.67 to 5.89 after Thursday’s outing. Pregame, the Nationals celebrated his achievement, but he said it was easy to compartmentalize his long journey while preparing for Thursday’s game.

“Once you get between the lines, that’s your job out there,” Mikolas said. “Everything that’s happening in the clubhouse or anywhere else is irrelevant. You get in between the lines, and your job is to go out there and get out and compete.”

Mikolas had a winding road to his 10-year mark. He debuted at 23 with the Padres, was traded to Texas in 2014 but had to go to Japan for three years before returning in 2018 with the St. Louis Cardinals and making the All-Star team. Because of his unique path, he thanked the pitching coaches, strength coaches and his family. Reaching 10 years in the big leagues, he said, “is more than a one-person accomplishment.”

But after designating Littell and trading All-Star Foster Griffin to the Cleveland Guardians, the Nationals suddenly have two rotation spots to fill. Entering Thursday, their starters had the third-highest ERA in the majors (5.18).

It’s likely that lefty Andrew Alvarez, who started Monday, fills one spot. Early was thought to slot into the other, but that’s uncertain.

Late in the season, teams are typically looking to fill innings, not subtract them, which is why Mikolas could likely stay in the rotation. But, with a high ERA and underlying numbers (11.9% strikeout rate, 43.2% hard-hit rate) that don’t portend a turnaround, his spot in the rotation has to be questioned.

“It’s been super fun,” Mikolas said of his time with the Nationals. “This is one of the most fun group of guys that I’ve been around in my playing career. The coaching staff caring about their players and keeping everybody up, just the support and the camaraderie in the clubhouse has been incredible.”

It’s possible that Triple-A pitchers Luis Perales (acquired from Boston in the Jake Bennett trade) and Jackson Kent (fourth-round pick in 2024) get major league starts.

Perales, the organization’s 10th-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline, has a 3.44 ERA across 20 games (17 starts) at Triple-A. He has impressive velocity on his fastball and has drastically cut down on his walk rate with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

Kent, the eighth-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline, has increased his extension this season with help from the pitching coaches. That shortens the distance and time hitters have to react to pitches. The increased extension, combined with rising velocity, has allowed Kent to succeed at Triple-A. He’s posting a 4.38 ERA across 13 starts, with a 25% strikeout rate and a 8.2% walk rate.

Getting either of them starts this year would aid their readiness for next season, when they should impact the major league team. A healthy Early would also be a boost, but the team should take the long-term view with the 24-year-old lefty.

The offense looked better against one of the best pitchers in the world in lefty Cristopher Sanchez, but Mikolas’ outing put the game out of reach.

After Thursday’s loss, Washington is six games back in the wild-card race with its playoff odds rapidly decreasing. Giving younger arms a chance down the stretch could be best for the team in the short and long terms.

This article has been updated.